A major report into climate change is a wake-up call New Zealand
must heed, one of its main authors says.
The second part of the fifth United NationsIntergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change assessment report has just been
It predicts a 2-4 degree Celsius rise in average temperatures in
New Zealand by the end of the century and warns of increased risk
of wildfire, storms, floods, landslides and sea level rises.
Professor Tim Naish, director of the Antarctic Research Centre
at Victoria University, was one of the lead authors of the first
part of the report released in September.
The second part, including a chapter focused on Australasia, had
clear implications for New Zealand, he said.
The country faces a half-metre rise in sea levels by 2100 and
increasing storms, with "one in 100 year" events becoming annual
occurences by the end of the century, Naish said.
"This report is a wake-up call for New Zealand to take its head
out of the sand, to take a longer-term view - at least longer than
an electoral cycle - and rise to the challenge of adaptation if we
are to future-proof this country for coming generations."
The Australasia chapter lists a series of impacts the country is
likely to experience.
"Extreme weather events, such as droughts and flooding will
become more frequent as the wet regions in the west of New Zealand
can expect more rainfall and the already dry regions of Canterbury,
the far North and the East Cape become drier with significant
implications for water resources, increased risk for our
climate-sensitive primary industries such as agriculture and
horticulture and challenges for hydro-electricity generation,"
Another climate expert, Judy Lawrence, of the New Zealand
Climate Change Research Institute at Victoria, said there was "a
significant adaptation deficit" in the country.
Most of the planning to cope with climate change was only
conceptual. To adapt to sea-level rise and flooding risk, New
Zealand had to be ready to relocate people, invest in flood
protection and control land use in risk areas.
"Institutionally our devolved planning system leaves each local
government to fend for themselves, without much in the way of
centralised support," Lawrence said.
"Scientifically, there is only a patchy picture of where the
highest risks lie and who are the most vulnerable.
"Both these issues need to be addressed to assess, efficiently
and comprehensively, what is at risk and what range of options
there are for addressing the risks."
Climate Change Minister Tim Groser said New Zealand was focused
on reducing global emissions. Adaptation was the responsibility of
"Central government agencies also provide information, guidance
and research funding to support adaptation of New Zealand business
and infrastructure," he said.
The report's top 10 points:
- IPCC report opens: ''Human interference with the climate system
is occurring, and climate change poses risks for human and natural
- Key risks include: death, injury and disrupted livelihoods in
low-lying coastal zones and small island states from storm surges,
- Systemic risks to key infrastructure networks, including water
and power, from extreme weather events.
- Risks also to food insecurity and breakdown of food systems
from extreme weather.
- Impacts seen: ''glaciers continue to shrink almost worldwide'',
while coral reefs and arctic eco-systems among those already
- Species on the move: while a few recent species extinctions are
''attributed as yet to climate change'', many terrestrial,
freshwater and marine species have shifted geographic range and
- Recent climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts,
floods, cyclones and wild fires reveal significant vulnerabilities
to both human populations and eco-systems.
- Climate-related hazards exacerbate other stressors,
particularly for those in poverty.
- Adaptation is mixed where planning for sea-level rises
''remains piecemeal''. Efforts to cope with reduced water
availability more common.
- Economic costs are ''more likely than not'' to be greater than
the 0.2-2 per cent GDP range cited. That estimate excludes
catastrophic changes, tipping points, among other factors.